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12/11/2009Options Show S&P 500 Rally in Peril Amid Bearish Bets
(Update2)“If market declines materialize, you’ll see a
substantial pickup in volatility, and these puts have very strong volatility
characteristics for the buyer,” said Curnutt, whose firm advises professional
investors on derivatives strategies. “As volatility goes up, these
far-out-of-the-money puts have a very strong and favorable reaction to
increases.” ... |
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12/08/2009Is everyone a gold prospector?Without the
helping hand of the Fed, we fear that an exodus from risk assets could result in
a highly correlated market shock that could take the GLD down with it.
... |
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11/19/2009Correlation Between Stocks and Gold: An
ExplanationOf course, that could reflect the fact that gold
has had a big rally, and some many be now protecting themselves against a
reversal. However, Curnutt thinks it could reflect a more fundamental change.
Gold is being priced “more akin to something like a traditional risk asset like
the S&P 500,” he says. “That doesn’t mean the market isn’t pricing for the
risk that gold can move up quickly, but less so.” ... |
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10/12/2009Use ‘Shark Fin’ Trade to Hedge, Macro Risk
SaysInvestors should use a “shark fin” options strategy to
preserve profits from the steepest Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rally since
the 1930s, according to Macro Risk Advisors LLC... |
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10/06/2009Commodities surge drives stock market
higherLeaving interest rates low for too long can ignite
inflation but raising them too quickly can choke off a nascent recovery. Dean
Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors, cautioned that other central banks
are unlikely to soon follow Australia's lead because the recession exacted a
heavier toll in the U.S. and Europe. recovery.” |
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10/01/2009Dow, Up 15%, Has Best Quarter Since '98"We've
had a tremendous lift in those stocks...that were extremely susceptible to a
breakdown in the financial system," said Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk
Advisors. For months, "it has been a beta-driven rally." |
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9/29/2009Options May Protect Stocks Should Fed Tighten, Macro Risk
SaysInvestors should buy U.S. stock options to hedge against
losses when the Federal Reserve starts reducing stimulus, Macro Risk Advisors
LLC said... “Equity volatility has found a floor,” Curnutt wrote. “Despite
continued signs of economic recovery and the lower trend in realized volatility,
the VIX sits just below its level three months ago.”
recovery.” |
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5/29/2009VIX is likey to reach 40 before 20, Macro Risk Survey
Says“Many investors expressed the view that a range bound
‘summer doldrums’ market will cause the VIX to drift lower near- term, but that
volatility would spike later in the year,” said Curnutt, the former head of
institutional sales for equity derivatives at Bank of America Corp. “This
sentiment arises from investors’ skepticism around the validity of ‘green
shoots’ and the impact that looming risks could have on the economic
recovery.” |
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5/8/2009Stress-test Success Masks Bigger Problem with
BanksHowever, market participants emphasise that more
fundamental risks continue to dog the financial sector. One indication of this
is continued high volatility among financial stocks, according to Dean Curnutt,
the president of New York-based derivatives strategy and execution firm Macro
Risk Advisors. |
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4/14/2009Opalesque Exclusive: Measuring the new risk in the hedge fund
industry – legislative riskA focus on trying to understand
government policy is at the forefront of many managers’ risk analysis in this
climate. “The government has the ability to change the rules of the game
quickly,” says Dean Curnutt, President of Macro Risk Advisors, a New York-based
derivatives strategy and transaction execution firm...Macro Risk Advisors, which
has a large hedge fund client base, says hedge funds have found it necessary to
evaluate possible regulatory changes immediately – even those suggested
regulatory changes which are likely politically driven and unlikely to amount to
actual legislation. |
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3/5/2009Four at Four: PainCitigroup fell below $1 a
share Thursday, but an investment in the company would, for now, still feel like
gambling, as any other purchase in the market tends to be these days. “Relative
to November which was much more of a technical scare, with the money market
system and commercial paper system, this is a market that’s consistently leaking
and trying to find a home,” says Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors.
“The low could be as low as 600, in a lot of fits and starts.”
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2/12/2009For volatility funds, current markets offer chance to pitch the
portfolio hedge that few focus on in stable times“The surge in
volatility began in September of last year and most would point to the fall of
Lehman Brothers as the catalyst for the increase in the volatility.” Dean
Curnutt, President of derivatives strategy and transaction execution firm Macro
Risk Advisors said. Curnutt’s firm works with managers who use volatility
trading and options as hedges throughout the market cycles, as well as managers
which use them to generate alpha for their portfolios. |
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11/20/2008A Bad Case of Buyer's RemorseSome 50
institutional investors were asked recently by a New York derivative strategy
firm, Macro Risk Advisors, how volatile they expect stocks to be. The answer:
They were bracing for the S&P 500 to rise or fall by an average 3% a session
over the next two months, before average daily swings subside to 2.3% over the
next six months and 1.9% over the next year.
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