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12/11/2009
Options Show S&P 500 Rally in Peril Amid Bearish Bets (Update2)
“If market declines materialize, you’ll see a substantial pickup in volatility, and these puts have very strong volatility characteristics for the buyer,” said Curnutt, whose firm advises professional investors on derivatives strategies. “As volatility goes up, these far-out-of-the-money puts have a very strong and favorable reaction to increases.” ...

12/08/2009
Is everyone a gold prospector?
Without the helping hand of the Fed, we fear that an exodus from risk assets could result in a highly correlated market shock that could take the GLD down with it. ...

11/19/2009
Correlation Between Stocks and Gold: An Explanation
Of course, that could reflect the fact that gold has had a big rally, and some many be now protecting themselves against a reversal. However, Curnutt thinks it could reflect a more fundamental change. Gold is being priced “more akin to something like a traditional risk asset like the S&P 500,” he says. “That doesn’t mean the market isn’t pricing for the risk that gold can move up quickly, but less so.” ...

10/12/2009
Use ‘Shark Fin’ Trade to Hedge, Macro Risk Says
Investors should use a “shark fin” options strategy to preserve profits from the steepest Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rally since the 1930s, according to Macro Risk Advisors LLC...

10/06/2009
Commodities surge drives stock market higher
Leaving interest rates low for too long can ignite inflation but raising them too quickly can choke off a nascent recovery. Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors, cautioned that other central banks are unlikely to soon follow Australia's lead because the recession exacted a heavier toll in the U.S. and Europe. recovery.”

10/01/2009
Dow, Up 15%, Has Best Quarter Since '98
"We've had a tremendous lift in those stocks...that were extremely susceptible to a breakdown in the financial system," said Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors. For months, "it has been a beta-driven rally."

9/29/2009
Options May Protect Stocks Should Fed Tighten, Macro Risk Says
Investors should buy U.S. stock options to hedge against losses when the Federal Reserve starts reducing stimulus, Macro Risk Advisors LLC said... “Equity volatility has found a floor,” Curnutt wrote. “Despite continued signs of economic recovery and the lower trend in realized volatility, the VIX sits just below its level three months ago.” recovery.”

5/29/2009
VIX is likey to reach 40 before 20, Macro Risk Survey Says
“Many investors expressed the view that a range bound ‘summer doldrums’ market will cause the VIX to drift lower near- term, but that volatility would spike later in the year,” said Curnutt, the former head of institutional sales for equity derivatives at Bank of America Corp. “This sentiment arises from investors’ skepticism around the validity of ‘green shoots’ and the impact that looming risks could have on the economic recovery.”

5/8/2009
Stress-test Success Masks Bigger Problem with Banks
However, market participants emphasise that more fundamental risks continue to dog the financial sector. One indication of this is continued high volatility among financial stocks, according to Dean Curnutt, the president of New York-based derivatives strategy and execution firm Macro Risk Advisors.

4/14/2009
Opalesque Exclusive: Measuring the new risk in the hedge fund industry – legislative risk
A focus on trying to understand government policy is at the forefront of many managers’ risk analysis in this climate. “The government has the ability to change the rules of the game quickly,” says Dean Curnutt, President of Macro Risk Advisors, a New York-based derivatives strategy and transaction execution firm...Macro Risk Advisors, which has a large hedge fund client base, says hedge funds have found it necessary to evaluate possible regulatory changes immediately – even those suggested regulatory changes which are likely politically driven and unlikely to amount to actual legislation.

3/5/2009
Four at Four: Pain
Citigroup fell below $1 a share Thursday, but an investment in the company would, for now, still feel like gambling, as any other purchase in the market tends to be these days. “Relative to November which was much more of a technical scare, with the money market system and commercial paper system, this is a market that’s consistently leaking and trying to find a home,” says Dean Curnutt, president of Macro Risk Advisors. “The low could be as low as 600, in a lot of fits and starts.”

2/12/2009
For volatility funds, current markets offer chance to pitch the portfolio hedge that few focus on in stable times
“The surge in volatility began in September of last year and most would point to the fall of Lehman Brothers as the catalyst for the increase in the volatility.” Dean Curnutt, President of derivatives strategy and transaction execution firm Macro Risk Advisors said. Curnutt’s firm works with managers who use volatility trading and options as hedges throughout the market cycles, as well as managers which use them to generate alpha for their portfolios.

11/20/2008
A Bad Case of Buyer's Remorse
Some 50 institutional investors were asked recently by a New York derivative strategy firm, Macro Risk Advisors, how volatile they expect stocks to be. The answer: They were bracing for the S&P 500 to rise or fall by an average 3% a session over the next two months, before average daily swings subside to 2.3% over the next six months and 1.9% over the next year.

 

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